What duty changes on spirits are expected in the upcoming HMRC budget announcement?

Members anticipate a spirits duty increase of 30–35p per 70cl bottle of 40% ABV (roughly £0.20–£0.29 per litre), with the announcement expected on 27 October. However, there is uncertainty: if the government states "no change to government policy" on spirits duty, this will in effect trigger an automatic 4.9% rise in line with RPI. The government is expected to simplify the duty structure by targeting growth categories (pre-mixed drinks, seltzer) while being gentler on UK beer—the most vocal complainants. Members also highlight ongoing industry lobbying through the BDA and WSTA to scrap the duty stamp scheme, which was introduced post-Brexit to prevent cross-border duty arbitrage but is now seen as unnecessary bureaucracy. There is frustration that craft-producer relief schemes (similar to the US Craft Beverage Modernisation and Tax Reform Act model) remain blocked by lobbying from large spirits producers, despite years of campaigning.