Ask the Collective

What is the current state of the on-premise/hospitality market and how reliable are the published statistics?

The on-premise sector is showing mixed and contradictory signals, making it difficult to assess true performance. Published statistics appear unreliable and often lack proper context. **Statistical concerns:** - Published data (e.g. Restaurant Online reporting 5.2% growth in March 2024) is "not comparing apples with apples" according to members—Easter timing distortions and other methodological issues make year-on-year comparisons questionable - Anecdotal reports from the ground contradict headline figures; members heard claims of March being down 25% year-on-year, but this lacked supporting context - Marketing narratives from platforms and aggregators contain "a lot of hot air"—companies like Bemakers make broad claims about pan-European delivery capability, but investigation reveals they operate in only 4–5 key markets with manual fulfillment behind the scenes **Reality on the ground:** - Major operators are in visible distress: Rev's and Stonegate reported to be "in serious trouble" - Regional disparities are significant (e.g. Belfast coverage gaps noted as "painful" to navigate) - Hospitality groups are difficult to reach and engage with directly **Takeaway:** Treat published growth figures with significant skepticism. Verify claims through direct conversations with operators and regional players rather than relying on aggregated statistics or vendor marketing.