Ask the Collective
The questions independent drinks founders ask most — answered. Distilled from years of community knowledge so the good stuff never disappears in the feed again.
What are cost-effective sources for UK spirits and RTD market data, and what current retail value data is available?
Members face the same challenge: IWSR and traditional market research are expensive. Here's what the community actually does: **DIY research options:** - Search trademark and brand-name availability yourself across UK, EU, and USA platforms (free but labour-intensive; USA particularly complex with overlapping trademarks). Note that trademark classes 33 (spirits) and 32 (beers) overlap, so check both. **Consultants and studios:** - **United Creatives** (Manchester) — suggested as a potential affordable data source - **Joe Bowker at Gorilla Studio** (Manchester) — recommended for market research support **Shared community data:** - Members have begun sharing internal spreadsheets (e.g. "United Kingdom_Spirits.xlsx" — 2023 data) within the group. Andy has shared a detailed spirits document; he was also checking for similar RTD-category-specific breakdowns. Ask directly in the group if members will share what they've compiled. **Caveat:** One member noted that ChatGPT and generic online searches don't account for international trademarks and may miss nuance. The community's own pooled data and consultant recommendations are more reliable than generic tools.
What is the actual impact of the cost of living crisis on premium spirit demand and consumer downtrading behaviour?
Members indicate mixed signals: **IWSR projects 10% CAGR for super-premium rum to 2027** (based on 2021 data), and several members report optimism about prospects for super-premium as a category, positioning it as "luxury rather than dispensable extravagance." However, a **Jefferies US spirits de-premiumisation tracker (August 2022)** provides granular category-level evidence of selective downtrading: **Evidence of downtrading:** - **Vodka** — clear downtrading visible; **Grey Goose** dropped from top-10 growth contributor to top-10 drainer, whilst cheaper brands grow - **Rum** — some downtrading pressure, with high-end growth (e.g. **Diplomatico**, **Bumbu**) offset by competition from flavoured vodkas and RTDs **Categories holding strong (no systemic downtrading):** - **Tequila** — **Casa** and **Don Julio** seeing no signs of slowing; premium momentum continues - **Whiskey/Scotch** — premium offerings (**Woodford**, **Makers**, **Basil Hayden's**, **Elijah Craig**, **Johnnie Walker**, single malts, **Jameson** premium variants) performing well; **Jim Beam** and **Famous** not benefitting from downtrading - **RTDs** — driving lion's share of industry growth alongside tequila - **Cognac** — weakness attributed to inventory shortages rather than downtrading to brandy **Key caveat:** The Jefferies tracker notes it was "too soon" in August 2022 to see systemic downtrading, and acknowledges changing market conditions with weaker consumer confidence. Members warned that 2021 IWSR projections predated fuel price impacts and current disposable income squeeze—suggesting short-term hunkering down over winter is likely despite long-term premiumisation trends. **On-trade risk:** House pouring deals are not being premiumised, and smaller suppliers face disadvantage versus **Diageo**, **Bacardi**, and **Pernod** at pour level.
What does CGA/Nielsen market data cost and how do you access it?
Market data reports from CGA and Nielsen range widely depending on scope. Members report **one-off reports** cost approximately £1–5k each, varying by whether you want category-wide or specific retailer data. For ongoing access, **annual subscriptions with providers like IRI** typically run £12–15k per year. One member noted they paid around £3k for a report a few months ago but wouldn't recommend it—so quality and value vary. The key variable is defining exactly what data you need (category-level vs. specific retailers) before getting a quote, as this drives the price significantly.
What do we know about Gen Z alcohol spending patterns compared to other generations?
Gen Z spending on alcohol as a proportion of disposable income is comparable to other generational cohorts, though the narrative in mainstream media often misrepresents this data. Key context: - **Age range**: Gen Z currently spans ages 12–27, meaning a significant portion are still underage and have lower disposable income overall, which skews aggregate figures downward - **Spending proportion**: Members cite data from Barclays Investment Bank showing Gen Z spends similarly to other cohorts *as a proportion of their income*, not in absolute terms - **Demographic complexity**: There are more abstainers within Gen Z, but spending data among drinkers are comparable to millennials and previous generations - **Media gap**: Press coverage often portrays Gen Z as mostly non-drinkers, which doesn't match the actual spending data members have accessed Caveats: The Barclays data cited is not publicly available; members have referenced it from internal contacts. Reported figures suggest Gen Z may spend the same or slightly more than millennials on alcohol, but this requires contextualising the higher proportion of underage members and abstainers within the generation.
What is the current state of the on-premise/hospitality market and how reliable are the published statistics?
The on-premise sector is showing mixed and contradictory signals, making it difficult to assess true performance. Published statistics appear unreliable and often lack proper context. **Statistical concerns:** - Published data (e.g. Restaurant Online reporting 5.2% growth in March 2024) is "not comparing apples with apples" according to members—Easter timing distortions and other methodological issues make year-on-year comparisons questionable - Anecdotal reports from the ground contradict headline figures; members heard claims of March being down 25% year-on-year, but this lacked supporting context - Marketing narratives from platforms and aggregators contain "a lot of hot air"—companies like Bemakers make broad claims about pan-European delivery capability, but investigation reveals they operate in only 4–5 key markets with manual fulfillment behind the scenes **Reality on the ground:** - Major operators are in visible distress: Rev's and Stonegate reported to be "in serious trouble" - Regional disparities are significant (e.g. Belfast coverage gaps noted as "painful" to navigate) - Hospitality groups are difficult to reach and engage with directly **Takeaway:** Treat published growth figures with significant skepticism. Verify claims through direct conversations with operators and regional players rather than relying on aggregated statistics or vendor marketing.